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9-11 Inside Job and Neocons Hacked 2004


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Math Logic Proof Shows that ESI Analysis of 
Ohio and National Exit Poll Data is Bunk
Math Logic Proof Shows that ESI Analysis of Ohio and National Exit 
Poll Data is Bunk -- Mitofsky and ESI's Claim to "Rule Out Vote 
Fraud" is Proven Incorrect
George W. Bush could have won the 2004 presidential election due to 
large-scale vote fraud without election data showing the patterns 
that the Election Science Institute (ESI) and pollster Warren 
Mitofsky claim must exist if vote fraud had occurred.  The analysis 
that exit pollster Warren Mitofsky presented at the October 14, 2005 
American Statistical Association fall conference has been proven 
mathematically useless for testing exit poll data for vote fraud.
In the 2004 presidential election, John F. Kerry won according to 
exit polls. Yet George W. Bush won according to the official 
election results.  Exit pollster Warren Mitofsky in a January 2005 
paper, stated that the discrepancy between election and exit poll 
results was caused by Kerry voters responding to exit polls more 
than Bush voters.  From January to June, the National Election Data 
Archive (NEDA) used algebraic methods to show that this "reluctant 
Bush responder" explanation was refuted by the available exit poll 
data.  However, in a June 2005 paper, and at the October 14 American 
Statistical Association fall conference, Mitofsky presented another 
hypothesis that he claimed "kills the vote fraud argument" in the 
2004 presidential election.
Math Logic Proves that ESI's Latest Analysis Purporting to Rule out 
Vote Fraud Is Invalid
Mitofsky and Election Science Institute (ESI)  argue that
"If systematic fraud or error in vote counting [favoring Bush] 
occurred [in precincts] in 2004 but not in 2000, then Bush would 
have done significantly better in those precincts in 2004 [than in 
2000], and we would see larger exit poll discrepancies in those 
That is, ESI claims that if precincts had vote fraud, then we would 
expect better Bush performance in those precincts in 2004 than in 
2000. Mitofsky showed that precinct-level Bush vote increases from 
the 2000 election were not correlated with larger exit poll 
discrepancies, and concluded that vote fraud could thus be ruled out 
in the 2004 presidential election.
However, to cite just one possibility, what if the Democrats won the 
2004 turnout battle big-time so that the effect of vote fraud in 
those precincts was to rescue Bush from a worse performance than in 
2000 and bring him up to even?
The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) uses mathematical logic to 
prove that ESI's logic is incorrect and that any analysis of vote 
fraud based on it is meaningless.  NEDA, in its proof, shows how 
Bush could win in 2004 due to large-scale vote fraud and yet have 
higher exit poll discrepancies where the Bush vote share is less in 
2004 than in 2000 (not more as ESI claims).
In other words, no conclusion on the occurrence of vote fraud can be 
reached via the analysis used by Mitofsky with ESI.
Any mathematician utilizing the discipline of Math Logic can easily 
check the validity of NEDA's proof by reading "Mathematical Proof 
that Election Sciences Institute's Test to Rule Out Vote Fraud is 
Logically Incorrect" which can be found at
NEDA requests that:
1.      Mitofsky and ESI please shoot only straight arrows into the 
fray from now on -- by logically and mathematically checking their 
hypotheses of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies before publicly 
releasing them.  Time could better be spent on implementing a 
national election data archive system to analyze election data as 
soon as polls close; and
2.      the polling firm Edison/Mitofsky release their arsenal of 
2004 raw precinct-level unadjusted data for the entire United 
States, as was done for Ohio, so that independent researchers could 
statistically ascertain whether vote fraud probably occurred or 
not.   Further, precinct identifiers are needed to allow 
investigation into the causes of some impossible election results in 
some precincts where the sum of all non-responders to the exit poll 
plus the number of all responders who said they voted for Bush is 
less than Bush's official vote share.
Any valid comparison of the 2000 and 2004 elections to test for vote 
fraud would require 1) the unadjusted exit poll discrepancy data for 
the 2000 election, and 2) consideration of other issues such as the 
influence of third party candidates, voter turnout increases, and 
changing precinct demographic and geographic characteristics .
NEDA will release its own analysis of the precinct level Ohio exit 
poll data on November 2, 2005 in a report, "The Gun is Smoking: Ohio 
Precinct-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of 
Vote Miscount".
Press Contact: Kathy Dopp 435-608-1382 or 917-656-0066
The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) a nonprofit organization 
of statisticians and mathematicians devoted to the accuracy of U.S. 
vote counts.


Organization: The National Election Data Archive
online versions of press release: